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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although analysts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.