Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The frequently changing meeting is another twist in Trump's efforts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has warned to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that ending the war is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.